Analysis of Agricultural Changes in Magetan Regency Based on Built-up Land Development Prediction

Abstract

Land conversion, particularly in highly productive areas like those surrounding major cities on Java Island and beyond, remains a significant concern for sustainable development. East Java, for instance, witnessed the conversion of 9,597 hectares of agricultural land in 2019, repurposed for landfill, industrial, and property use. Magetan, a region in East Java, has notably experienced a substantial trend in agricultural land conversion, with a recorded change of 4,740.80 hectares over the past decade. This data serves as a crucial benchmark for predicting future developments on agricultural land in Magetan Regency. This study employs a spatial approach to determine the function of agricultural land for potential built-up areas, utilizing cellular automata for the modeling process. The achieved accuracy surpasses 85%, validating the effectiveness of the approach. Modeling outcomes reveal a uniformly distributed prediction of agricultural land conversion, aligning with existing settlement patterns. Notably, three sub-districts—Bendo, Kartoharjo, and Panekan—are projected to undergo agricultural land changes exceeding 400 hectares over the next 20 years. This research contributes valuable insights for land-use planning and sustainable development efforts in Magetan Regency and similar regions facing agricultural land conversion challenges.

Keywords: Agricultural Change, NDVI, Built-up Land, Prediction, Remote Sensing